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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running bid to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to host the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help speed up the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered close to the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a conference obstructed from the top if his administration managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has empirically made a difference in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and achieve an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society is essential at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.