From Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A unexpected operation on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its intention to govern indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”