Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
